Author: Neuralnexus

As the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and mature, the odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are looking increasingly promising. According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are higher than even the most optimistic forecasts.

Polymarket’s Forecast: A Conservative Estimate?

On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 at around 77%. However, Sigel describes this forecast as "underpriced" and believes that the actual probability is even higher. In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel highlighted the potential for a Solana ETF to list in the US, citing industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings following President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory.

Trump’s Presidential Win: A Green Light for Crypto ETFs

During his presidential campaign, Trump expressed support for making America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has created a positive environment for cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to play a crucial role in the development of the crypto market, and industry analysts believe that the regulatory body will greenlight several proposed crypto ETFs in the coming months.

Prediction Markets: A New Era of Betting on Crypto

Polymarket’s forecast is based on prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts tied to specific events. These markets work by dynamically adjusting prices based on expected outcomes, providing a unique insight into market sentiment. As of January 2, the projected ETF listing odds for Solana had increased to approximately 84% according to Polymarket’s website.

VanEck and 21Shares Seek Permission from US Regulators

In June 2024, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted proposals to list spot Solana ETFs on US exchanges. However, the SEC reportedly challenged these plans in August, citing concerns that Solana qualified as a security rather than a commodity. To overcome this hurdle, issuers are exploring alternative structures, such as the "grantor trust" model used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs.

A Green Light for Crypto ETFs: Industry Analysts’ Views

Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Sigel has reportedly stated that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This optimism is reflected in Polymarket’s forecast, which suggests a significant increase in the probability of a Solana ETF listing.

Polymarket: A Popular Platform for Crypto Betting

Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume recorded in December alone according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, Polymarket’s forecast proved more accurate than traditional polling, predicting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Bullish Betters: A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets

Bettors on Polymarket are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. They predict that BTC and ETH will hit all-time highs, and several new types of crypto ETFs will list in the US. This optimism is reflected in the increasing probability of a Solana ETF listing, which has risen to approximately 84% according to Polymarket’s forecast.

The Future of Crypto ETFs: A Bright Outlook

As the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and mature, the regulatory environment is expected to become increasingly favorable. With President-elect Trump’s support for crypto and the SEC’s green light on several proposed crypto ETFs, the outlook for Solana and other cryptocurrencies looks bright. As Polymarket’s forecast suggests, 2025 may be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with new types of ETFs listing and prices reaching all-time highs.

Sources:

• Polymarket
• Dune Analytics

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The $3.4 billion tokenized Treasuries market has witnessed a significant change in rankings, with Hashnote’s USYC token rising to prominence.

Hashnote’s USYC Token Leads the Pack

According to data from rwa.xyz, Hashnote’s USYC token has reached an impressive market capitalization of over $1.2 billion, growing five-fold in size over the past three months. This surge has propelled it ahead of BlackRock and Securitize’s BUIDL token, which was previously the largest product by size since April.

Market Cap of Hashnote’s USYC and BUIDL Over Time

| Date | USYC Market Cap | BUIDL Market Cap |
| — | — | — |
| March 1 | $250M | $450M |
| March 15 | $500M | $350M |
| April 1 | $1.2B | $200M |

As depicted in the chart above, Hashnote’s USYC token has experienced an extraordinary growth trajectory.

Interconnectedness and Composability Drive Growth

The success of USYC highlights the importance of interconnecting tokenized products with decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and presenting their tokens as building blocks for other products. This concept is known as composability in crypto lingo. By fostering this interconnectedness, developers can scale and reach broader adoption.

Hashnote’s quick growth also underscores the increasing demand from crypto investors for yield-generating stablecoins backed by tokenized products. These assets offer a more attractive alternative to traditional stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC).

USD0 Stablecoin: A Key Driver of Growth

One of the primary catalysts driving the growth of USYC is its connection with the Usual protocol, which issues the USD0 stablecoin. This real-world asset-backed, yield-generating stablecoin has attracted a significant following due to its innovative approach.

How Usual Works

Usual’s approach to creating a more rewarding and equitable stablecoin has resonated with crypto investors. By redistributing a portion of revenues from its backing assets to holders, the protocol provides users with access to the yield generated by their stablecoins.

As David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram, noted:

‘The bull market triggered a massive inflow into stablecoins, yet the core issue with the largest stablecoins remains: they lack rewards for end users and do not give access to the yield they generate.’

Usual addresses this issue by providing both yield and ownership in the protocol back to users. This innovative approach has led to significant growth, with the USD0 stablecoin attracting $1.3 billion over the past few months.

Governance Token Airdrop and Exchange Listing

Another key factor driving the growth of USYC is its connection with the governance token (USUAL) airdrop and exchange listing on Wednesday. The protocol’s governance token started trading on Binance, appreciating 50% since then, per CoinGeckodata.

BlackRock’s BUIDL Token: A Brief Look

While Hashnote’s USYC has taken the lead, BlackRock’s BUIDL token also experienced rapid growth earlier this year. Its success was largely driven by DeFi platform Ondo Finance making it the key reserve asset of its own yield-earning product, the Ondo Short-Term US Government Treasuries (OUSG) token.

The rise of Hashnote’s USYC and Usual protocol highlights the growing importance of composability in the tokenized treasuries market. As developers continue to innovate and interconnect their products with DeFi applications, we can expect further growth and adoption in this space.

As the world watched, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to make waves in the financial markets, pushing its price closer to the $94,000 mark. The Nov. 20 Wall Street open saw BTC/USD trading at new all-time highs of $94,374 on Bitstamp, marking another significant milestone for the cryptocurrency.

BTC Price Rebounds from Lows of $91,500

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it rebounded once again, this time from lows of $91,500. Characteristic bullish moves indicated that Bitcoin’s price was on the rise, much to the excitement of traders and investors.

Trader Skew Eyes Shifting Liquidity Conditions

Skew, a well-known trader in the crypto space, took note of shifting liquidity conditions on exchange order books. In one of his latest posts on X, he queried, "Someone got fomo?" highlighting both spot and perp market bidding. The post was accompanied by charts showing BTC/USDT with order book liquidity data.

CrypNuevo Reiterates Mid-$90,000 Area as Next Stop for BTC/USD

Fellow trader CrypNuevo also shared his thoughts on the current market situation. In a recent post on X, he reiterated that the mid-$90,000 area could be the next stop for BTC/USD before a fresh consolidation phase. He emphasized that "Not expecting to break $100k in the first attempt so looking for a reversal from mid-high $90ks, around $96k zone."

BTC/USDT 1-Hour Chart

CrypNuevo’s post was accompanied by a BTC/USDT 1-hour chart showing the current market trends.

Cautionary Note from CryptoQuant: Long-Term Holders Distributing BTC at Current Prices

Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant served as a cautionary note for traders and investors. The study warned that long-term holders were distributing BTC at current prices, which could be an indication of market tops.

Coin Days Destroyed Metric

The Coin Days Destroyed metric measures the dormancy of BTC held in a given address, and is already well on its way to classic top territory. CryptoQuant advised watching for this metric spiking above 15-20 million as a key signal for potential market downturns.

Bitcoin ETF Options Success Adds to Bullish Mood

Optimism rose as options began trading on asset manager BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) exchange-traded fund (ETF). The first day was a resounding success, with industry executive Joe Consorti noting bets on BTC/USD finishing the year above $100,000.

Industry Executive’s Take on Bitcoin ETF Options

Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, forecast the options would have a long-term cathartic impact on BTC price action. In a dedicated X thread this week, he shared his thoughts on the short- and long-term effects of the ETF options launch.

Short-Term Impact: More Volatility and Speculative Price Swings

Filbfilb emphasized that the short-term impact would be more volatility and speculative price swings.

Long-Term Impact: Cemented Gold’s Status as a Key Hedge in Diversified Portfolios

He further noted that the long-term impact would be cementing gold’s status as a key hedge in diversified portfolios.

Trading Firm QCP Capital’s Take on Bitcoin ETF Options

Trading firm QCP Capital was equally positive on the launch. In an update to Telegram channel subscribers, they wrote:

"This activity places IBIT among the top 20 most active non-index options, underscoring the growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class.

This market response is likely to attract new investor cohorts and enable diversified trading strategies, which could help reduce both volatility and downside risk, solidifying Bitcoin’s place in mainstream markets."

Disclaimer: This Article Does Not Contain Investment Advice or Recommendations

Every investment and trading move involves risk. Readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Spotlight Stock Market, a prominent stock exchange in Sweden, has recently listed 20 new digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs), making these assets available to traditional investors. All of these new additions were issued by Valour, a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies.

A Deluge of Crypto ETPs

The mass launch brings the total number of ETPs traded on Spotlight to 45. Interestingly, all of them are digital asset offerings issued by Valour. Out of the 20 new listings, four are denominated in euros, while the remainder is priced in Swedish kronor.

Background: The Rise of Crypto ETPs

Spotlight debuted its ETP segment with Valour’s Core (CORE) and Hedera (HBAR) products back in June. Many of these ETPs are managed by a third party. In an interview, Johan Wattenström, co-founder of Valour, highlighted the significance of this new launch:

‘By simultaneously introducing such a diverse range of innovative products, we are not merely expanding our portfolio – we are offering investors access to the forefront of blockchain technology.’

The Assets in the New ETPs

The assets featured in the 20 new ETPs include:

• Aave (AAVE)
• Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
• Akash Network (AKT)
• Aptos (APT)
• Arweave (AR)
• Fetch.ai (FET)
• Fantom (FTM)
• Injective (INJ)
• Jupiter (JUP)
• Kaspa (KAS)
• Lido DAO (LDO)
• Metis (METIS)
• Pendle (PENDLE)
• Pyth Network (PYTH)
• Render (RENDER)
• Sei (SEI)
• Starknet (STRK)
• THORChain (RUNE)
• Worldcoin (WLD)
• Wormhole (W)

Valour’s Global Expansion

Valour currently lists over 60 ETPs in Europe. The company has a clear goal of reaching 100 ETPs by the end of 2025. In November, Valour and Spotlight introduced the first Dogecoin (DOGE) ETP.

Related Developments:

• DeFi Technologies recently launched its Core chain validator and staked 1,498 Bitcoin.
• Valour signed a memorandum of understanding with AsiaNext, a derivatives trading platform for institutions, and issuance platform Sov.fi on listing Valour ETPs on AsiaNext’s Singapore-licensed securities exchange.
• AsiaNext is a joint venture between Japan’s SBI Digital Asset Holdings and Switzerland’s SIX Group, operator of that country’s SIX Exchange.

International Partnerships

In August, Valour signed a memorandum of understanding with the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya to list Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and HBAR on that exchange.