The Holiday Period is Over, but Canadian Politics Remains Gripped by a Single Question: When Will Justin Trudeau Announce His Decision?
As the holiday period comes to an end, Canadian politics is still reeling from the resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Finance Minister and former closest ally of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Freeland’s public letter criticizing Trudeau has left many in the Liberal Party questioning his leadership.
Trudeau’s Disappearance from Public View
Since December 16th, when Freeland announced her resignation, Trudeau has largely disappeared from public view. According to a person familiar with his schedule, he spent much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada and has no official events or appearances planned by the end of January.
Anxious Liberals Urge Trudeau to Make a Decision
The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, warns that "time is of the essence." If the current polling numbers hold up in an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats.
The Risk of Provoking a Liberal Rebellion
Nanos explains that until now, it was primarily Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged. However, with his continued hesitation to make a decision, he is now risking inflicting damage on the party brand as well. This could lead to a Liberal rebellion, making it even more challenging for the party to smoothly transition to new leadership.
The Challenges of a Leadership Race
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run, with even longer under different circumstances. Even if the Liberals can avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.
Continuity in Government
To ensure continuity in government, Trudeau could resign but stay on as Prime Minister while a leadership race takes place. However, "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump," Nanos notes.
A Difficult Road Ahead for the Liberal Party
Regardless of who becomes the new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government. The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19% of the popular vote and only 34 seats.
Conclusion
The situation is precarious for Trudeau and the Liberal Party. As Nanos notes, "It very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election." The party’s survival depends on a swift resolution to the leadership crisis, but it remains uncertain whether this can be achieved.
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- Inside Justin Trudeau’s shocking call with Freeland that sparked Canada’s political crisis
Join the Conversation
What do you think is the best course of action for Trudeau and the Liberal Party? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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