Trudeau’s Future Tied to Vote in Wealthy Toronto Neighborhood
The outcome of the upcoming byelection in a wealthy Toronto neighborhood is being closely watched as a potential harbinger for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future. The riding, known for its liberal leanings, has been a stronghold for the Liberal Party since the 1990s.
Conservative Candidate Poilievre Seeks Victory
Don Stewart, the Conservative candidate, has been distributing fliers condemning Hamas and supporting Israel’s right to defend itself. If he wins, it would be a significant coup for the Conservatives, who have no seats within the city of Toronto but do have representation in the suburbs.
Liberal Candidate Leslie Church Promises Tough Stance on Hate-Motivated Crimes
Leslie Church, the Liberal hopeful and former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff, has promised to crack down on hate-motivated crimes targeting Jewish residents by increasing police presence in the city. "We stand for fighting the wave of antisemitism we’ve seen in our communities," she said.
Jeff Kane: ‘We’re Not for Poilievre, We’re Against the Liberals’
Forest Hill residents Jeff and Betty Kane, who voted for Trudeau when he first entered office, intend to vote for the Conservatives despite being skeptical of Poilievre’s leadership. "We’re not for Poilievre so much as we’re against the Liberals," said Jeff Kane.
Trudeau’s Polling Numbers Remain Poor
Despite his dreadful polling numbers, Trudeau has avoided calls for his resignation from within his party’s caucus. However, if he loses a Liberal stronghold in left-leaning Toronto, there is a risk that private grumblings will break into the open and imperil his grip on power.
Byelections Typically Have Weak Voter Turnout
Some Liberal insiders doubt a loss would be enough to push Trudeau out. Byelections typically have weak voter turnout and can be influenced by events with no bearing on a general election result, they argued.
Area’s Reputation as a Liberal Bastion
The area’s reputation as a Liberal bastion is partly owed to its former representative, Carolyn Bennett, a party stalwart who stepped aside to become Canada’s ambassador to Denmark. Her support ran deep in middle-class neighborhoods like Wychwood and Humewood, while affluent Forest Hill tended to lean right.
Dan Arnold: Voter Motivation Key
The results come down to "whoever’s most motivated to vote," said Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara and a former Liberal pollster. The Conservatives are on the rise across Canada, but the Liberals are better at campaigning in progressive Toronto districts, he said.
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