As the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and mature, the odds of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are looking increasingly promising. According to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are higher than even the most optimistic forecasts.
Polymarket’s Forecast: A Conservative Estimate?
On January 1, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket estimated the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 at around 77%. However, Sigel describes this forecast as "underpriced" and believes that the actual probability is even higher. In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel highlighted the potential for a Solana ETF to list in the US, citing industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings following President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory.
Trump’s Presidential Win: A Green Light for Crypto ETFs
During his presidential campaign, Trump expressed support for making America "the world’s crypto capital." This sentiment has created a positive environment for cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to play a crucial role in the development of the crypto market, and industry analysts believe that the regulatory body will greenlight several proposed crypto ETFs in the coming months.
Prediction Markets: A New Era of Betting on Crypto
Polymarket’s forecast is based on prediction markets, which allow users to trade contracts tied to specific events. These markets work by dynamically adjusting prices based on expected outcomes, providing a unique insight into market sentiment. As of January 2, the projected ETF listing odds for Solana had increased to approximately 84% according to Polymarket’s website.
VanEck and 21Shares Seek Permission from US Regulators
In June 2024, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted proposals to list spot Solana ETFs on US exchanges. However, the SEC reportedly challenged these plans in August, citing concerns that Solana qualified as a security rather than a commodity. To overcome this hurdle, issuers are exploring alternative structures, such as the "grantor trust" model used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs.
A Green Light for Crypto ETFs: Industry Analysts’ Views
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. Sigel has reportedly stated that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high." This optimism is reflected in Polymarket’s forecast, which suggests a significant increase in the probability of a Solana ETF listing.
Polymarket: A Popular Platform for Crypto Betting
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, with nearly $2 billion in trading volume recorded in December alone according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, Polymarket’s forecast proved more accurate than traditional polling, predicting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bullish Betters: A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors on Polymarket are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. They predict that BTC and ETH will hit all-time highs, and several new types of crypto ETFs will list in the US. This optimism is reflected in the increasing probability of a Solana ETF listing, which has risen to approximately 84% according to Polymarket’s forecast.
The Future of Crypto ETFs: A Bright Outlook
As the cryptocurrency market continues to grow and mature, the regulatory environment is expected to become increasingly favorable. With President-elect Trump’s support for crypto and the SEC’s green light on several proposed crypto ETFs, the outlook for Solana and other cryptocurrencies looks bright. As Polymarket’s forecast suggests, 2025 may be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with new types of ETFs listing and prices reaching all-time highs.
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